Jeffrey Stibel, CEO of Dun & Bradstreet Credibility Corp., made an appearance last week on the Wall Street Journal’s News Hub, an online video review of the top news stories of the day. Mr. Stibel discussed his prediction that the unemployment rate will drop to 5%, contrary to the belief of some economists.
Unemployment has been stuck at 6.3%, even after the addition of 217,000 jobs last month. Many economists predict it will be a while until the unemployment rate falls further, but Mr. Stibel thinks we will see the change within approximately the next year. We have had four months of consistent job growth, with over 200,000 jobs added every month. Mr. Stibel says he sees this as “incredibly positive news” and “moving towards 5% unemployment.” He states that after nearly every other recession, small business job growth happened first, before the growth of big businesses. In the current case, small businesses have had limited access to capital, so big businesses have been hiring first. We are now starting to see small business hiring rates increase, which Mr. Stibel sees as an indicator of decreased unemployment in the near future.